Welcome to my blog called “The Feiner Points”. Here I will discuss a variety of topics each week.
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The Feiner Points 84 – Super Bowl 51 Blog
As of this post, the New England Patriots are a 3-point favorite, with the Over/Under at 58.5. New England was the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl before the season and obviously represent the AFC. On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons are the stunner for the NFL 2016/2017 Season. Dan Quinn has done a phenomenal job in only his second year as the Head Coach. Quinn won a Super Bowl ring already as the defensive coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks in 2014. Although he has does not have any where near the talent on the defensive-side in Atlanta as he did in Seattle, his defense is peaking at the right time.
The positives for New England are extremely obvious. Bill Belichick, arguably the greatest coach of all time, making his seventh Super Bowl appearance, winning four and losing two in his first six, but the Patriots are only 3-3 against the spread, and always underachieving as a favorite. They lost outright as a double-digit favorite to the New York Giants and winning by a field goal, but not covering, against the Eagles and the Panthers. Tom Brady has performed brilliantly in all his Super Bowl appearances. His best performance, might have been 4th quarter against Seattle, erasing a double-digit deficit and shredding the number one defense for two touchdowns. You know Brady will be up for the challenge.
Atlanta brings the number one offense in the NFL to Houston next weekend. Matt Ryan will be the MVP of the NFL this year and has crushed, in succession, Seattle and Green Bay on their road to the championship game. They have so many angles and weapons that it seems like it is impossible to shut them down. Julio Jones has established himself as the best receiver in the NFL and his YAC (Yards After Catch) makes him a threat for a possible touchdown, each and every time he touches the ball.
The game breaks-down simply like this. New England has the better defense, and was number 1 in Points Per Game Allowed, with a touch over two touchdowns per game. With Bellichick having two weeks to prepare, this normally would lock up a Super Bowl victory for the Patriots. Better defense, with two weeks to prepare, has been money in the bank for traditional system bettors. In the new age of the NFL, where each and every rule favors the offense and defensemen can no longer be physical getting away with holds down the field, you have to be very careful about going all-in simply based on defensive prowess. There were more “Overs” this year in NFL total betting than ever before. There were more points scored in the fourth quarter this year than ever before. It is almost impossible for a team to defensively impose their will for an entire game and shutdown an opponent. Atlanta has been and is unstoppable on offense, and this is why this game, for betting purposes, is extremely difficult to predict. The total is the highest ever in Super Bowl history which is puzzling considering the Patriot’s success on defense. The oddsmaker’s are giving Atlanta tremendous respect offensively and it is well deserved.
I was perfect last year winning every bet possible. Broncos plus points, Broncos moneyline, under the posted total, parlaying the Broncos with the under, and the icing on the cake with Von Miller as MVP at 25 to 1. As always, I will be your go to Source again for the winner of Super Bowl 51, stay tuned for my prediction.
AFC Total Dominance This NFL 2016/2017 Season
A great amount of people have been giving me grief about not respecting the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC. I think both teams are absolute frauds. They will win their share of games, they will blow out weak opponents, but the bar I am talking about is winning a championship. The window of opportunity has closed on the Seahawks with arguably the worst call in Super Bowl history two years ago allowing Russell Wilson to pass on the goal line, hence instead of back-to-back Super Bowls, they handed Bill Belichick his fourth on a silver platter. The Arizona Cardinals might be the most over-hyped and over-rated team in the history of the NFL. Carlson Palmer is a proven loser and choke artist. When the stakes are highest Palmer folds like a pup-tent leaving the campgrounds on beautiful Sunday afternoon. Head coach Bruce Arians, who is treated like a genius, has done absolutely nothing in big spots with the Cardinals. Again, his gambling mentality and play-calling down the stretch, especially with less than five minutes left, is clueless, self-sabotaging, and has cost his team greatly.
In the AFC I put the Bengals, Jets, Colts, Raiders, Texans, and Chiefs in this “I pray to god, if everything goes right, and no injuries occur, I can make some noise” category. The reality of this happening for any of these squads is zero, zip, nada, never! The best of the bunch are the Bengals and the Colts, but they each have glaring deficiencies. The Cincinatti Bengals have not won a playoff game in close to a decade, and all-world quarterback during the regular season—Andy Dalton—reverts back to arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL in the playoffs. He is a turnover machine and his decision making appears as if he is trying to lose the game. With the Indianapolis Colts, their offensive line is a sieve, which during December and come playoff time, becomes their demise. And to boot, their weak offensive line nearly gets franchise quarterback Andrew Luck killed. He is not afforded the luxury of a great running game or great receivers and is forced to do it all on his own, which he has not, nor will he ever be up to that task.
Now let’s get down to the big three—one of these teams will win the Super Bowl. Number one is the Super Bowl Champions, the Denver Broncos. Last year, the Broncos proved that they do not need an offense to win a Super Bowl. In spite of not being able to move the ball in the playoffs and championship game, they took home the crown. Obviously this only occurred because they have a top five defense in the history of the NFL. At any given moment, the Broncos turn it on, cause immediate turnovers, cause punt after punt after punt, and can score themselves off picks and turnovers. In addition, the Broncos’ defense is so physical they knock out the opponents best players or physically damage them to a level that they no longer are within the competition. If somehow they earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they will win back-to-back championships as John Elway did on his way out.
Number two is the New England Patriots. As we saw Sunday night, even without Tom Brady, without Gronk, without two of their top offensive linemen, and with a quarterback that has barely taken a snap in the NFL they went into highly touted Arizona and beat them handily wire-to-wire. The Patriots are the best coached team in the NFL by far, as their brilliant leader Bill Belichick has a decided advantage over any coach he faces. Two inhuman efforts by the New York Giants has been the only thing stopping Brady and Belichick from pitching a perfect 6-0 in Super Bowl play. As great as Brady is, and as many accolades that have been bestowed upon him, he is still underrated. Brady has been brutally sacked, hurt, mauled, and knocked down and out. Somehow, Brady rises and beats you with arguably the greatest golden arm in the history of the NFL. There is no doubting he is the greatest competitor to ever live, and probably the brightest and smartest quarterback I have ever seen. The higher the pressure the more amazing his performance seems to be. Again, if Garoppolo can keep them alive until Brady gets back from serving his time for Deflate-Gate, and Brady can secure for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs they will win the Super Bowl.
Number three, and my pick to win the Super Bowl, with their seventh crown, will be the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have never seen a more prolific offense in the history of me watching NFL football. It might not show on the stat card, but with the new rules that are in place in which you can no longer maul receivers, Ben Roethlisberger and company are flat out unstoppable. Big Ben earns his title and is a mammoth of a human being: impossible to bring down, impossible to pressure, and with an arm as strong as Thor’s hammer, he is a devastating opponent and the toughest quarterback in the NFL. Not what is absolutely unfair about the Steelers is they have the best running back in the NFL in Le’Veon Bell. Bell can devastate you with his legs and speed, he can run you over like a freight train in necessary, but what separates him from all other backs is his rout running and exceptional hands catching the ball. He truly is unstoppable and makes the Steelers my choice to win the Super Bowl whether they have home field advantage or not. But make no mistake about it, even though they are starting without Bell due to his suspension, they will probably post the best record in the NFL at 14 and 2, 15 and 1, and I would not be surprised if they pitch a 16 and 0 sweep. The Steelers’ defense is solid but far from great. They have enough playmakers in big spots to step up and use the bend but don’t break cliché to its fullest. At full strength, they can score forty points against anyone, and they might need to, to put away the Patriots and the Broncos. Whether they face the Packers or the Panthers in Superbowl 51, you can bet the OVER right now, as they might put a sixty-spot on either squad. The NFL is slated for offenses to be prolific and has done everything possible to destroy a low scoring defensive game. Offense sells, offense is great for ratings, offense is great for the brand of the NFL and the Pittsburgh Steelers, with arguably the greatest all-around offense in the history of the NFL, wins the Super Bowl in a rout against any NFC team that they face. It will be like lambs to the slaughter, as the rich get richer and the Rooney family gets their seventh Super Bowl crown.
The Feiner Points Volume 82
First Impressions After Week 1 NFL
The AFC will win the 2016/2017 Super Bowl and here is why. I have never seen such a disparity in how stacked the AFC teams are compared to NFC lineups. Defending NFC Champs, the Carolina Panthers, still have a long way to go as they are the class of the NFC and have the two best linebackers in the NFL. Despite this defensive edge, they are still one hit away from losing Cam Newton. Newton gets absolutely no respect from the referees as we saw in last Thursday’s Opening NFL game between the Panthers and Broncos. At least two of the hits he took should have landed Denver Broncos players in jail. They did not even get fined, reprimanded, or suspended; I have no idea how this is even possible. Mark my words, Cam Newton will never make it through the entire season healthy.
The Green Bay Packers are the second best team in the NFC, but still have tremendous flaws, namely in their defensive capability. All-world quarterback Aaron Rodgers does things on a daily basis that have never been seen before. He is arguably the most talented quarterback to ever play his position and is must-see-TV every time he has the ball. You can never count him out, no matter how large a point deficit is. His heart, ability to see the field with x-ray vision and precision, and arm strength in the pocket and on the run, is a flat out joy to watch. Can they ever stop an opponent when it counts is the only question here, as Rodgers is forced to win every game on his own when the money is on the line.
Besides the Packers and Panthers, the rest of the NFC is total dog shit. A bunch of pretenders that have so many flaws it is not even worth wasting the time to mention. This will be a two horse race down the stretch, and Carolina or Green Bay will get unceremoniously blown out in the Super Bowl. You heard it here first on September 14th, 2016.
The “NFL Preseason Football Package” will provide you with a selection on every single game and total for the 2016 NFL Preseason. Preseason football feels like betting fixed games, even though it is not. I have a decided advantage in Preseason that I do not have betting the regular season games or any other sport that I handicap and bet. Let me explain. My job at the very least is to analyze all statistical information, past performances, weather reports, injury reports, team motivational factors, and last second events that effects the outcome of the game. In preseason NFL I can take this analysis one step further, simply based on the fact that I know one team wants to win, and their opponent could care less. One team will come to the gridiron with their starters and they will face second and third-string squads from jump-street. No other sport gives you the edge with life or death information than preseason football. I will say no more and let my record speak for itself.
2015 Preseason Record: 21 – 7 Preseason Selections, 4 – 0 Best Bets
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NCAA Tournament Predictions
The 9th choice to win the NCAA Tournament, Xavier, is both the best value on the card and our pick for the sleeper upset at 15 to 1. Not Von Miller at 25 to 1 to win Super Bowl MVP, but 15 to 1 ain’t too shabby. Xavier is dangerous, they can get the critical steal or defensive rebound they need. The squad also has assassins from the 3-point line as well as the ability to get it into the big men down low. Our upset special is Xavier at 15 to 1 to win the NCAA Tournament.
AFC Championship 2016
On Sunday, at 3pm, I like the Denver Broncos to spring the upset, and beat the New England Patriots. Denver will go on face the winner of Arizona / Carolina in the Super Bowl. Call me sentimental, call me a dreamer, but in Peyton Manning’s last year as pro, I believe he has one final run that will get himself to the Super Bowl. Obviously, this run would mean he has to defeat his nemesis and arch-enemy Tom Brady. Although off the field they are best of friends, on the field Brady has crushed Manning. If you look a little further, this is not the case when Peyton is playing at home. The number one defense in the NFL bends, but does not break, against Brady’s aerial short-passing attack. Tons of fields goals instead of touchdowns, and Denver goes on to the Super Bowl.
NFC Championship 2016
On Sunday, January 24th, Arizona travels into Carolina as a three point underdog. So for all intents and purposes it is a pick-em game. Carolina has had the best record in the NFL, and the team also features the 2016 NFL Most Valuable Player Cam Newton. Carolina have earned home field advantage, and I believe they are sure as shit going to need it. From my perspective, Arizona is the better team. Unfortunately for Arizona, playing on the road negates any advantage they might have. Either one of these teams could easily be our Superbowl Champions, and I am excited to see who advances.
This is the biggest AFC East game of the season on Sunday and it feature a fantastic rivalary that will be even more heightened now. Why? The rivalry became less about football and more about head coaches drama, or fat Rex Ryan’s press conference. Rex is a blow-hard, Rex is all the flash with NONE of the substance. How’s it going in Buffalo Rex? His own players question his scheme. This Sunday the game will be about football. It will be about on the field, it will be about a top 2 offense versus a top 2 defense. It will be about schemes, it will be about blitzes, it will be about audibles. THAT is why I am looking forward to Sunday, the focus is on the right element. I can’t wait to discuss it on my radio show on Sunday. Sunday 12pm-1pm WOR710 AM, get the IHeart Radio APP.